For the last two years, many shippers have benefited from a relatively soft freight market. Capacity has generally been available, spot rates have remained manageable, and transportation budgets have been more predictable than they were during the supply chain disruptions of 2021 and 2022.
This summer, however, several factors are beginning to shift the market.
Between rising diesel prices, increasing spot market activity, seasonal produce demand, and a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that could significantly impact broker and carrier operations, shippers should be preparing for a more challenging transportation environment in the months ahead.
After an extended freight recession, signs are emerging that capacity is beginning to tighten in certain regions and equipment segments. Seasonal produce season, increased summer construction activity, and carrier exits from the market are all contributing factors.
Industry analysts have reported increasing spot market activity and upward pressure on truckload rates as we move into the summer shipping season. Many smaller carriers have spent the last two years operating on thin margins and are less willing—or able—to absorb additional operating costs.
For shippers, this means:
Companies that rely heavily on the spot market may feel these impacts first.
Diesel remains one of the largest operating expenses for trucking companies, and recent geopolitical events have caused significant volatility in energy markets. Several industry reports have noted substantial increases in diesel prices during 2026, creating additional financial pressure for carriers.
When diesel costs rise, carriers have several options:
Even when contract fuel surcharge programs are in place, there is often a lag between rising fuel costs and reimbursement. That gap can create capacity disruptions, particularly among small and mid-sized carriers.
Shippers should closely monitor fuel surcharge exposure and understand how rising fuel prices could impact both transportation costs and carrier availability.
One of the most significant developments affecting the transportation industry this year came from the U.S.Supreme Court.
In May, the Court ruled that freight brokers can be sued under state negligence laws for the selection of unsafe motor carriers. The decision effectively removes a layer of federal protection that brokers have historically relied upon when defending negligent hiring claims.
While the long-term impact remains to be seen, many industry experts expect the ruling to create several immediate changes:
Increased Carrier Vetting:
Brokers will likely implement stricter carrier onboarding and monitoring procedures. Safety scores, insurance compliance, authority history, inspection records, and operational performance will receive greater scrutiny than ever before.
Reduced Capacity Availability:
Some carriers that previously qualified for freight opportunities may find themselves excluded from broker networks due to increased risk concerns. This could further tighten available capacity in certain markets.
Higher Insurance and Compliance Costs:
Both brokers and carriers are expected to face increased insurance premiums and compliance-related expenses as the industry adjusts to the new legal environment. Those costs ultimately work their way into transportation pricing.
More Focus on Safety and Documentation:
The ruling reinforces the importance of working with transportation partners that have strong carrier qualification procedures, documented compliance processes, and ongoing monitoring programs.
Rather than waiting for market conditions to tighten further, shippers can take several proactive steps:
Review Transportation Budgets:
Expect transportation costs to become more volatile through the summer and potentially into the fall.
Strengthen Carrier and Broker Relationships:
Strong partnerships often provide more reliable access to capacity when markets tighten.
Increase Lead Time Where Possible:
Last-minute freight is often the first area impacted when spot rates begin to rise.
Evaluate Your Carrier Network:
Make sure your transportation partners have robust carrier vetting and compliance procedures in place.
Monitor Fuel Trends Closely:
Fuel remains one of the largest variables affecting trucking costs, and continued volatility could influence freight pricing throughout the remainder of the year.
The freight market is not returning to the extreme conditions experienced during the pandemic, but the environment is becoming more complex. Rising fuel prices, tightening capacity, seasonal demand, and evolving legal risks are creating new challenges for shippers across the country.
Companies that plan ahead, maintain strong transportation partnerships, and prioritize safety and compliance will be in the best position to navigate the months ahead.
At Select Transport Partners, we continue to closely monitor market conditions, carrier capacity, fuel trends, and regulatory developments to help our customers stay ahead of potential disruptions and keep freight moving efficiently.